First Half 2014 Deal Summary

Following is a summary of the ten largest retail deals in the Los Angeles Metro market for the first six months of 2014.

10 Largest Retail Deals in Los Angeles Metro in 2nd Quarter 2014

Property Name/CitySale PriceSquare FeetPrice/Square FootCap RateCap Rate
Qualifier
Occupancy
At Sale
Fallbrook Center
West Hills
$210,000,000880,000$239N/AN/A98%
Malibu Village
Malibu
$120,000,00050,948$2,355N/AN/A90%
Weller Court
Los Angeles
$28,700,00069,405$414N/AN/AN/A
LA Fitness
Van Nuys
$23,526,08753,000$444N/AN/A100%
Ralphs Center
Redondo Beach
$22,000,00069,649$316
N/AN/A100%
8655 Beverly Blvd
Los Angeles
$21,997,60022,438$980N/AN/A100%
Alexander McQueen
West Hollywood
$19,900,0004,390$4,533N/AN/A100%
24 Hour Fitness
Burbank
$18,500,00068,525$2706.4%underwritten100%
4550 Van Nuys Blvd
Sherman Oaks
$16,800,00030,467$551N/AN/A77%
Source: Real Capital Analytics. The information listed above has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, however, we accept no responsibility for its accuracy. This chart does not include pending sales.

 

Of particular note is the occupancy level of the transactions, ranging from one transaction at 77% to the remaining properties being between 90 and 100% occupied at the time of sale. This reflects the appetite for investment grade properties that are in demand, particularly well located anchored centers. What could be better located and anchored than the Malibu Village transaction, with tenants such as Wells Fargo, Nike, Sephora, Chipotle, and many others. This property last sold in July 2011 for $77 million, and three years later for $120 million, an approximate 56% increase! The recent buyer is a German institutional investment firm, which reflects another trend toward an increase in cross border transactions.

The Alexander McQueen building is located at 8379 Melrose Avenue in the trendy section of West Hollywood. It is fully occupied by the fashion designer, Alexander McQueen, and is situated on a hard corner.

For further details on any one of the 10 deals, please send me an e-mail using the “Contact Me Directly” tab at the top of this page.

2nd Quarter 2014 Los Angeles Retail Market Recap

This review covers the Los Angeles Market, which includes the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Ventura Counties as defined by Real Capital Analytics. The review includes three main topics; Volume, Pricing, and Fundamentals. The data includes deals over $2.5 million.

As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, so I’ve kept the write up short for easy review!

VOLUME – Dollar Volume & Year Over Year Change

The total volume for the Los Angeles Market for 2Q 2014 was $971.3 million which was down 0.5% from 2Q 2013 ($976.4 million), however, 2Q 2014 volume was up 18.1% from 1Q 2014 volume of $822.6 million.

1 Volume 1

VOLUME - Number of Properties and Total Square Feet

There were 89 properties traded with a total of 2.7 million square feet, which represents a Year Over Year (YOY) increase of 51% in the number of properties (59 properties in 2Q 2013) with a corresponding increase in the total number of square feet (3.1 million square feet in 2Q 2013). The average deal size declined in that period from 41,071 square feet in 2Q 2013 to 34,831 square feet for 2Q 2014. The takeaway is the noticeable increase in the volume while the deal size is has declined by 15%.

 1 Volume 2

PRICING – Price per Square Foot & Top Quartile Price per Square Foot

The average price per square foot was about $328, however, the top quartile was over $726 per square foot. The top quartile figure is heavily influenced by the sale of 12 properties that sold for over one thousand dollars per square foot during the second quarter. The average price per square foot in 2Q 2014 declined slightly from $338 in 1Q 2014, but has decreased from $423 in 2Q 2013.

2 Pricing 1

PRICING - Cap Rate and Top Quartile Cap Rate

Cap rates increased 50 basis points this last quarter to 5.9% after a 70 point drop in 1Q 2013 from 4Q 2013. The top quartile also had a 50 point rise from 5.0% to 5.5% in the same time frame.

2 Pricing 2

PRICING – Cap Rate and Yield Spread

The yield spread increased this last quarter to 334 basis points from 268 points in the 1Q 2014. Part of this could be due to the fact the 10 year treasury has also decreased a similar amount.  The spread peaked 2Q 2012 at 496 points, the highest spread since 3Q 2002 when it was 488 points.

2 Pricing 3

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional Vacancy Rate and Institutional Vacancy Year Over Year Change

The institutional vacancy rate ticked up slightly to 4.8% from 4.7% the previous quarter. However, Institutional Vacancy has been steadily declining since its peak in 4Q 2011 when it was 7.1%.

Institutional Vacancy Rate is defined as the percentage of the property’s net rentable square footage that is not under lease obligation, and may vary from physical vacancy.

3 Fundamentals 1

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional Effective Rent and Institutional Effective Rent Year Over Year Change

Effective rent also saw strengthening with an average rent of $31.50 per square foot per year which was up 4.5% from 2Q 2013 when it was $30.70. Institutional Effective Rent includes all collected rental income from the property. More specifically it includes: Base Rent incorporating free rent and escalations, Contingent Income, Expense Reimbursement, Other Operating Income.

3 Fundamentals 2

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional NOI per square foot and Institutional NOI Year Over Year Change

Institutional NOI per square foot stayed steady for the third quarter in a row at $22.90. however, it still reflects an increase of 5.8% from 2Q 2013 when it was $21.70. This reflects a trend that has been occurring since the 4Q 2011 when Institutional NOI was only $17.70, a 29% increase in only 11 quarters.

The average institutional expense (Institutional Effective Rent – Institutional NOI) is about $8.60. Institutional NOI is climbing faster than the L.A. Metro annual inflation rate of 2.0% which is up from 1.3% for March 2013. Institutional NOI is defined as Institutional Effective Rent Revenue minus Operating Expense. Operating expense includes the following: Ground Rent, General Administrative, Management Fee, Marketing, Other Operating Expense, Payroll And Benefit, Professional Fees, Property Insurance, Real Estate Tax, Repairs And Maintenance, and Utility Expense.

3 Fundamentals 3

 

Pasadena – Sears: Downsizing an Icon?

The old Sears logo was briefly uncovered during the facade renovation.

The old Sears logo was briefly uncovered during the facade renovation.

It is no secret that Sears has been struggling, having lost 19% of its stock value in the last year ($48.04 to $38.90). But this is something I didn’t expect to see, the subleasing of space in its Pasadena store to Home Goods, a subsidiary of TJ Maxx which has seen their stock price rise in the same period from $58.34 to $78.34, a nearly 26% increase.

I estimate that approximately a third of the bottom floor is now taken up by Home Goods, while the balance of the 216,000 square foot building is still occupied by Sears. The Home Goods portion opened on May 18, 2014.

image003

Home Goods sells “one-of-a-kind handcrafted merchandise, high-end designer goods found in department stores and specialty stores at significant discounts.” Home Goods, which opened in 1992, has approximately 400 stores with long range plans for between 750 and 825.

Sears, the once dominate department store in the United States, is a retailer with 2,172 full-line and 1,338 specialty retail stores in the United States operating through Kmart Holding Corporation (Kmart) and Sears, Roebuck and Co. (Sears) and 500 full-line and specialty retail stores in Canada operating through Sears Canada Inc. (Sears Canada), a 95%-owned subsidiary.

Home Goods now occupies the eastern portion of the bottom floor of the Pasadena Sear.

Home Goods now occupies the eastern portion of the bottom floor of the Pasadena Sear.

1st Quarter 2014 Los Angeles Retail Market Recap

This review covers the Los Angeles Market, which includes the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Ventura Counties as defined by Real Capital Analytics. The review includes three main topics; Volume, Pricing, and Fundamentals. The data includes deals over $2.5 million.

As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, so I’ve kept the write up short for easy review!

 

VOLUME – Dollar Volume & Year Over Year Change

The total volume for the Los Angeles Market for 1Q 2014 was $809 million which was up 61.1% from 1Q 2013 ($502 million), however, 1Q 2014 volume was down from 4Q 2013 volume of $1.1 billion. It is typical that there is a lot of activity in the fourth quarter followed by a decline in the first quarter.

1 Volume 1

VOLUME - Number of Properties and Total Square Feet

There were 89 properties traded with a total of 2.7 million square feet, which represents a Year Over Year (YOY) increase in the number of properties (62 properties in 1Q 2013) with a corresponding increase in the total number of square feet (1.9 million square feet in 1Q 2013). The average deal size staid relatively the same at 30,337 for 1Q 2014 as it was in 1Q 2013 which was 30,645. The takeaway is the noticeable increase in the volume; up 43% in one year while the deal size is relatively the same.

1 Volume 2

 

PRICING – Price per Square Foot & Top Quartile Price per Square Foot

The average price per square foot was about $328, however, the top quartile was over $652 per square foot. The top quartile figure is heavily influenced by the sale of the Gucci Building in Beverly Hills which sold for over $8,000 per square foot!

2 Pricing 1

PRICING - Cap Rate and Top Quartile Cap Rate

Cap rates continued their downward trend to 5.3%, which is down from 6.4% in 1Q 2013. The top quartile saw a decline from 5.% to 4.8% in the same time frame.

2 Pricing 2

PRICING – Cap Rate and Yield Spread

As would be expected with a decline in cap rates and an increase in volume, the yield spread also continued to thin. With an average cap rate of 5.3% the spread over the 10 year treasury narrowed to 259 basis points in 1Q 2014, which is down from 1Q 2013 when the average cap rate was 6.4% with a spread of 455 points.

2 Pricing 3

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional Vacancy Rate and Institutional Vacancy Year Over Year Change

The institutional vacancy rate was a reported 4.9% which was down from 5.3% in 1Q 2013. Institutional Vacancy Rate is defined as the percentage of the property’s net rentable square footage that is not under lease obligation, and may vary from physical vacancy.

3 Fundamentals 1

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional Effective Rent and Institutional Effective Rent Year Over Year Change

Effective rent also saw strengthening with an average rent of $30.60 per square foot per year which was up 2.9% from 1Q 2013 when it was $29.80. Institutional Effective Rent includes all collected rental income from the property. More specifically it includes: Base Rent incorporating free rent and escalations, Contingent Income, Expense Reimbursement, Other Operating Income.

3 Fundamentals 2

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional NOI per square foot and Institutional NOI Year Over Year Change

Institutional NOI per square foot stayed steady at $22.80 in the 1Q 2014 from 4Q 2013, however, it still reflects an increase of 7.7% from 1Q 2013 when it was $21.10. This reflects a trend that has been occurring since the 4Q 2011 when Institutional NOI was only $17.70, a 29% increase in only 10 quarters.

The average institutional expense (Institutional Effective Rent – Institutional NOI) is about $7.80. Institutional NOI is climbing faster than the L.A. Metro annual inflation rate of 1.0% which is down from 1.3% for March 2013. Institutional NOI is defined as Institutional Effective Rent Revenue minus Operating Expense. Operating expense includes the following: Ground Rent, General Administrative, Management Fee, Marketing, Other Operating Expense, Payroll And Benefit, Professional Fees, Property Insurance, Real Estate Tax, Repairs And Maintenance, and Utility Expense.

3 Fundamentals 3

 Source: Real Capital Analytics

Azusa – Sold! Retail Building on Foothill Blvd (old Route 66)

DSCN5529-resized

Sperry Van Ness is pleased to announce the sale of 250 E Foothill Boulevard, an approximately 6,000 square foot building built in 1911. Terms of the deal are not public.

DEAL STORY

The Property: 250 E Foothill Boulevard, Azusa, CA. The Los Angeles County Assessor’s office listed the building as 7,396 square feet on approximately 8,831 square feet of land. However, upon subsequent measurement, it was found that the building is closer to approximately 6,000 square feet. The building was built in 1911 and was listed by the City of Azusa as an historical building due to its age.

The Challenges: The previous tenant was operating a pawn shop under a conditional use permit that expired, leaving the property owner with a vacant building. The owner decided that it would be better to dispose of the asset rather than try to fix it up and lease it. However, the owner was not aware that the City had placed the building on the “City of Azusa Historic Property Survey List” in 2001. This designation prohibited the owner or a buyer from demolishing the building and constructing a new one.

Also, a Phase I environmental report in 2008 indicated the existence of potentially environmental issues with the existence of a hydraulic hoist. The owner decided that it would be in his best interest to remediate the situation before entering into a contract to sell. Given that the owner was located some 150 miles away from the property, Sperry Van Ness was able to coordinate the activities of the environmental contractor and the repair of the ten foot door in order to allow access to the interior.

Sperry Van Ness fielded several low-ball offers that did not seem to be in the best interest of the seller. With patience and persistence, we were able to find the right buyer and close the deal in 30 days.

The Broker: Ken Rhinehart, Senior Advisor

Lessons Learned: Trust your commercial property to a commercial specialist. If you own a retail property, you want a retail specialist, not a generalist.

No deal is too small, and sometimes, even a small deal can present obstacles that require the careful attention to detail and experience that only a knowledgeable commercial specialist can provide.

The client’s needs come first. It would have been much easier to take one of the initial low-ball offers and be done with the deal, but we persisted and ultimately found a buyer willing to pay the highest price. The client’s needs come first.

The Amazon Effect – Are Manufacturers Changing Packaging to reflect a new product delivery paradigm?

SAM_2300-resized

 

I bought a toy on Amazon for Christmas for my two year old son and I was surprised when I opened the plain brown box. Gone was the colorful packaging pictures of happy children playing with the toy and the clear plastic that induces cries from toddlers that they need that toy while rolling down the aisle of the store. In its place came a plain brown box with the toy inside. No laceration inducing clam shell packaging that requires a razor blade or industrial tools in order to open.

Instead, I opened the box and saw this; just a simple box with the toys inside.

SAM_2302-resized

 

This Fisher-Price “Drillin’ Action Tool Set boasts “Certified Frustration-Free Packaging” with “No clamshells – No wire ties – low waste.”

SAM_2304-resized

I, for one, am grateful to hopefully see the demise of the horrible clamshells, after a sever laceration to one of my fingers from the packaging of a previous toy!

But the implications of this packaging are much wider than a simple consumer package. Obviously, manufacturers such as Fisher-Price (a wholly owned subsidiary of Mattel since 1993) are seeing the cost benefits of packaging products in this fashion. The colorful packing is expensive to produce and print. The interior packaging does not require anything more than simple cardboard, like the picture says, “No ties and No clamshell.”

But why the new style of packaging? I think it is a result of the Amazon effect. The manufacturer may now cut out the middleman, such as WalMart, Target, Toys R Us and other retailers, and ship the product directly to Amazon with cheaper packaging which lowers the cost to the consumer.

I haven’t seen this with other products, yet, but I am sure other manufacturers will follow if they haven’t already. Amazon will continue to have effects on all types of brick and mortar retailers as this continues to grow. However, so far, you can’t download an app that will cut your hair, polish your nails, dry clean your clothes and give you a hot cup of coffee with your donut.

SAM_2303-resized

By the way, my son loves the drill!

4th Quarter 2013 Los Angeles Retail Market Recap

The Los Angeles Metro Market was the #1 market for retail deals in the United States in 2013 with a total deal volume of approximately $3.576 billion barely edging out second place finisher Chicago with a total deal volume of $3.546 billion. Manhattan was third with approximately $3.453 billion, Dallas fourth with $1.845 billion, and Houston was fifth with $1.616 billion.

This review covers the Los Angeles Market, which includes the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Ventura Counties as defined by Real Capital Analytics. The review includes three main topics; Volume, Pricing, and Fundamentals. The data includes deals over $2.5 million.

VOLUME – Dollar Volume & Year Over Year Change

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

The total volume for the Los Angeles Market for 4Q 2013 was $1.1 Billion which was down 7.7% from 4Q 2012 ($1.2 billion), however, 4Q 2013 volume was the same as 3Q 2013.

VOLUME - Number of Properties and Total Square Feet

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

 

There were 88 properties traded with a total of 4.3 million square feet, which represents a Year Over Year (YOY) decrease in the number of properties (128 properties in 4Q 2012) with only a small decrease in the total number of square feet (4.6 million sf in 4Q 2012). The average deal in 4Q 2013 was 45,864 versus 35,938 square feet in 4Q 2013. The trend is toward larger deal size.

 

PRICING – Price per Square Foot & Top Quartile Price per Square Foot

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

The average price per square foot was about $289, however, the top quartile was over $562 per square foot. The top quartile reflects some outrageous deals in Beverly Hills, one of which sold for over $7,000 per square foot!

PRICING - Cap Rate and Top Quartile Cap Rate

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Cap rates continued their downward trend to 5.9%, which is down from 6.3% in 4Q 2012. The top quartile saw a decline from 5.8% to 5.1% in the same time frame.

PRICING – Cap Rate and Yield Spread

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

As would be expected with a decline in cap rates, the yield spread also thinned. With an average cap rate of 5.9% the spread over the 10 year treasury narrowed to 282 basis points in 4Q 2013, which is down from 4Q 2012 when the average cap rate was 6.6% with a spread of 496 points. Part of this narrowing is due to the rise in the ten year treasury.

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional Vacancy Rate and Institutional Vacancy Year Over Year Change

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

The institutional vacancy rate was a reported 3.8% which was down 31.6%  from 4Q 2012 (5.6%). Institutional Vacancy Rate is defined as the percentage of the property’s net rentable square footage that is not under lease obligation, and may vary from physical vacancy.

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional Effective Rent and Institutional Effective Rent Year Over Year Change

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Effective rent also saw strengthening with an average rent of $30.70 per square foot per year which was up 5.0% from 4Q 2012 when it was $29.20. This increase outpaced inflation. Institutional Effective Rent includes all collected rental income from the property. More specifically it includes: Base Rent incorporating free rent and escalations, Contingent Income, Expense Reimbursement, Other Operating Income.

FUNDAMENTALS - Institutional NOI and Institutional NOI Year Over Year Change

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

With a decline in vacancy and a rise in effective rent, naturally there was a rise in NOI to $22.80, which was 10.9% higher than 4Q 2012. This calculates to an average institutional expense of about $7.90. Institutional NOI in 4Q 2012 was about $20.60 per square foot per year. Institutional NOI is climbing faster than the L.A. Metro annual inflation rate of 1.1% which is down from 1.9% for Dec 2012. Institutional NOI is defined as Institutional Effective Rent Rev minus Operating Expense. Operating expense includes the following: Ground Rent, General Administrative, Management Fee, Marketing, Other Operating Expense, Payroll And Benefit, Professional Fees, Property Insurance, Real Estate Tax, Repairs And Maintenance, and Utility Expense.

2014 CRE Market Outlook

As we look forward to 2014, Sperry Van Ness is pleased to share its perspective on the very memorable year now behind us and to offer its outlook for the commercial real estate investment market. In the text that follows, Sperry Van Ness is sharing not only its insight, but more importantly the data, interpretations and forecasts of exemplary SVN Advisors and Product Council Leaders.

THE CHANGING CONTEXT OF THE REAL ESTATE RECOVERY

Data at SVN and beyond shows that 2013 was a banner year for the commercial real estate industry, with investors working to move past the recovery paradigm and driving property trades to their highest levels since 2007. Easily surpassing $300 billion in mortgage-financed sales, the industry over the last year has rebounded more than threefold from its 2009 trough. The gains in 2013 were more balanced than in previous years and improvements in industrial, office, retail, and non-core property sales were on par with the more mature upswing in apartments. Land sales picked up as new opportunities for profitable development emerged. An even more important milestone, investment momentum broadened over the year from its relatively narrow focus on a small number of prime markets to include a much wider range of assets, locations, and investors.

Table 1

Apart from a further shift in momentum to secondary markets and small- and mid-cap assets, cyclical forces shape the outlook for real estate in 2014. A growing economy, improving property fundamentals, modest construction, and easier access to financing collectively offset drags that will follow from tighter monetary policy, rising interest rates, and uncertainties relating to the job market.

In the apartment sector, the status quo of very weak housing outcomes and limited new supply is shifting. As some households revisit the opportunity for homeownership, apartment demand is adjusting to a still-robust but more sustainable level. Construction projects are reaching completion in larger numbers, affording a healthier balance of supply and demand even as some developers overshoot the mark.

Table 2

Secular trends will also define the next year. Housing finance reform, if it gains traction during the current Congress, could radically and permanently alter the cost and availability of debt for all classes of housing, including multifamily. Across property types, new technologies continue to foment tremendous changes in the way we find and use space, as tenants and investors. Technology is also challenging the norms of how we facilitate the real estate investment market; new models will favor a more open and efficient ecosystem and the market participants who embrace it.

SHIFT TO SECONDARY MARKETS

At the top of the metro rankings, the most liquid prime markets—including Boston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and Washington, DC—saw continued capital inflows from large institutional investors. The increasingly common frenzy of bidders on trophy assets was not limited to public REITs, large real estate operating companies, and domestic pension funds. Even as global economic conditions stabilized, foreign investors and lenders flocked to the United States, not just as a safe haven but also as their best opportunity for long-term capital appreciation. According to the membership of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE), New York outranked all other markets globally in its investment potential last year, followed closely by the Beltway. Although Washington has lost much of its luster in the most recent rankings and London has reclaimed the top spot from New York, four of five global markets are in the United States.

Table 3

The relative saturation of leading markets with equity and debt capital has seen core property yields hold at their rock bottoms, even as interest rates have trended higher. Values held during the second quarter’s Treasury yield shocks. With trophy and large-cap prices now surpassing their pre-crisis peaks, the upside in these market segments is more limited than just a few years ago. In the hunt for yield, SVN data show that some buyers are constrained by investment criteria that limit their moves out of global cities. Others are not, and are now joining private investors in seizing opportunities for returns in the mid- and small-cap segments.

This plodding recovery in secondary markets contrasts sharply with conditions in the most visible metros. Even among secondary markets that have recorded breakaway growth in the energy, tech and new media sectors, investors and lenders had been wary of re-engaging too early. That wariness diminished considerably in 2013, aided by reinvigorated CMBS conduit lenders. Among the pivotal developments of the last year, the long-anticipated secondary market rebound is now well underway. With each succeeding quarter, secondary markets now account for a larger share of overall sales volume both at SVN and within the industry as a whole. That trend will carry forward into 2014. As much as “bifurcation” so aptly described the early stages of the commercial real estate recovery, the next year will belong to small- and mid-cap properties and investors.

A NEW TRAJECTORY FOR THE ECONOMY AND INDUSTRY

The overriding trends at work in the commercial real estate sector show we have good reason to be optimistic. They also hint at an industry that is changing, where collaboration and open platforms are replacing the old models of fragmentation and information asymmetry. Market participants that aggressively guard proprietary information as their store of value are becoming less relevant. The impact of new technologies on real estate is usually discussed in terms of demand for different types of space. But the business of commercial real estate is itself changing. Like other industries, that implies great opportunity for innovators and a more challenging path for the less adaptable.

It is rarely clear which of the new approaches to market making will be disruptive and which will fall by the wayside. But experimentation is part of the process of entrepreneurship that inevitably leads forward. New ways of doing things, navigating secondary markets’ higher risk-return profiles, and an industry pulling away from recovery mean that our Advisors serve in increasingly important roles as facilitators of the market. The success of SVN Advisors in working to bring online auctions into the main stream over the last year as well as our open Monday sales calls, point to a year of progress against a backdrop of stronger economics and capital markets:

Supporting real estate’s broader investment momentum, buyers and lenders became more confident during 2013 in their expectations for the economy. Their positive assessments were bolstered during the third quarter. In spite of headwinds from the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate, the economy expanded close to its fastest pace since the recovery got underway. The consensus projection puts GDP growth near 3 percent in 2014 and 2015, closer to its potential. At the same time, inflation is expected to remain subdued.

While the economy is poised for stronger growth, the labor market is also a critical gauge of demand period that economic growth and corporate profits do not necessarily coincide with stronger hiring. Although we have replaced most of the jobs lost during the recession, the share of Americans who are not working remains unacceptably high. The potential for disappointing job and wage gains was reinforced in the December employment report, which showed the smallest net increase in employment in nearly three years.

Table 4

Pending fresh momentum in the job market, diminished downside risks to growth are prompting a less supportive stance from monetary policy. Historically low interest rates have been one of the primary supports for the economy and property markets. Lower yields on the safe harbor investment of US Treasuries have allowed lower borrowing costs, debt yields, and cap rates. Hints at tightening by the Federal Reserve pushed Treasury prices lower during the second and third quarters, with little impact on property values.

Table 5

Chandan Economics reports that interest rates on long-term commercial mortgages increased marginally over the same period and during the third and fourth quarters. Financing is no longer
at a historic low, but the availability of secured mortgages has improved dramatically in secondary markets. In the period following the financial crisis, traditional sources of commercial real estate lending were largely disengaged. Bank lenders had refocused on managing legacy distress and, under pressure from regulators, hesitated to make loans to all but the most established borrowers. CMBS conduit lenders were absent from the market altogether. More active regional and community banks, credit unions, and CMBS lenders is a critical piece of the market puzzle that is falling
into place.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

The prospects for commercial real estate are bright. Downside risks remain a feature of the market, but are overshadowed by strengthening tailwinds. In a shift from the early recovery, that can be said for investors across a wide range of markets. Engaging on this larger investment landscape means that information and insight is more important than ever. In this environment, the Advisor serves an even more important role in making markets work. I am confident that it is an environment that we are well prepared for and in which we will thrive over the coming year.

National and Los Angeles Metro Retail 2013 Year in Review

The Los Angeles Metro Market was the #1 market for retail deals in the United States in 2013 with a total deal volume of approximately $3.576 billion barely edging out second place finisher Chicago with a total deal volume of $3.546 billion. Manhattan was third with approximately $3.453 billion, Dallas fourth with $1.845 billion, and Houston was fifth with $1.616 billion.

NATIONAL SUMMARY

Nationally, sales of significant retail properties totaled $60.8b in 2013, up 8% from 2012. Sales of strip centers and single-tenant properties jumped 26% with activity for regional malls failing to meet the surge of recapitalizations of 2012 and holding back larger volume gains in the retail sector.

A remarkable rebound in prices occurred for retail properties in 2013 as investors re-embraced the sector in 2013. The Moodys/RCA CPPI for retail is expected to post a 23% increase for the year, well above any other property type.

2013 was a year investors moved further out the risk spectrum and started to pursue properties and markets that have lagged in the recovery. Volume in the Non-Major Metros grew 23% while activity in the 6 Major Metros declined 14%. Prices for unanchored centers surged 27% on opportunistic buying. Las Vegas, Atlanta, Tampa, and Sacramento were the top markets in terms of volume or price gains.

Portfolio transactions are proliferating, evidencing investors’ growing appetite and access to capital.

Five years since the financial crisis that caused $72.1b of loan defaults in the retail sector, a third of that total remains outstanding. However lenders are making steady progress reducing distress levels, and while distressed sales will continue for some time, distress is no longer a significant factor weighing on the marketplace.

Individual property sales declined slightly in 2013, including a 30% yoy decline in Q4.

LOS ANGELES METRO MARKET SALES

25 Largest Retail Deals in Los Angeles Metro in 2013

Property Name/CitySale PriceSquare FeetPrice/Square FootCap RateCap Rate
Qualifier
Occupancy
At Sale
Antelope Valley Mall
Palmdale
$380,784,8711,100,000$3465.8%allocatedN/A
Westfield West Covina
West Covina
$342,803,4281,180,455$290N/AN/AN/A
Hollywood & Highland Center
Hollywood
$310,655,000462,000$672N/AN/AN/A
South Bay Galleria
Redondo Beach
$145,569,697388,400$3755.8%allocatedN/A
Lladro
Beverly Hills
$120,000,00016,129$7,440
N/AN/AN/A
Peninsula Shopping Center
Palos Verdes
$87,300,000293,714$2975.3%quoted88%
Los Altos Market Center
Long Beach
$54,556,596157,000$347N/AN/AN/A
Glendale Marketplace
Glendale
$50,000,000169,605$295N/AN/A77%
Courtyard at the Commons
Calabasas
$50,000,00089,074$5615.8%underwritten100%
Diamond Hills Plaza
Diamond Bar
$48,000,000139,314$3456.0%prior year98%
Gateway Village
Valencia
$47,500,000153,687$309N/AN/A91%
Woodland
Woodland Hills
$46,952,500112,477$417N/AN/A100%
Mountain Gate Plaza
Simi Valley
$44,550,000251,000$1778.7%underwritten94%
Emporio Armani
Beverly Hills
$40,000,00018,205$2,197N/AN/A100%
The Terraces
Rancho Palos Verdes
$37,255,960183,859$203N/AN/A90%
Palmdale Marketplace
Palmdale
$37,250,000215,200$173N/AN/A98%
Hollywood Walk of Fame
Hollywood
$36,678,50044,911$817N/AN/A100%
Plaza De La Canada Shopping Center
La Canada
$35,900,000100,408$358N/AN/AN/A
Former Wickes
West Covina
$35,500,000114,000$311N/AN/AN/A
Movietown Plaza
Los Angeles
$35,000,00050,734$690N/AN/AN/A
Shops on Lake Avenue
Pasadena
$34,000,000132,206$257N/AN/A75%
Westridge Village
Valencia
$33,500,00097,286$3446.8%quoted97%
Sepulveda Eagle Center
Los Angeles
$33,250,00097,600$341N/AN/AN/A
Best Buy
Sherman Oaks
$32,350,00054,457$594N/AN/A100%
Lancaster Commerce Center
Lancaster
$31,950,000290,487$110N/AN/A84%
Source: Real Capital Analytics. The information listed above has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, however, we accept no responsibility for its accuracy. NOTE: Midtown Shopping Center in Los Angeles was a $42.5 million deal, however, it was a ground lease sale.

 

WOW! At over $7,000 per square foot for a retail building on Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, the Lladro Building clearly sets the high water mark for price per square foot in the Los Angeles Metro. A distant second was the Emporio Armani building at 9533 Brighton Way which sold for a mere $2,197 per square foot. However, this is a nice gain for the seller, who bought the property in November 2010 for $25.5 million, or $1,398 per square foot. The Lladro deal at $120 million almost single handedly covered the gap between the L.A. Metro Market ($3.576 billion) and the Manhattan Market  ($3.453 billion) for deal volume in 2013.

Cap rates ranged from 5.8% to 6.8% on the properties where cap rates were available. Price per square foot ranged from $110 (Lancaster Commerce Center) to $817 (Hollywood Walk of Fame) for the non-Beverly Hills deals. Not surprisingly, the lowest price per square foot deals were in the Antelope Valley, a much less densely populated portion of Los Angeles County, while two of the higher price per square foot deals were in Hollywood, the Hollywood Walk of Fame ($817) and Hollywood & Highland Center ($672).

For further details on any one of the 25 deals, please send me an e-mail using the “Contact Me Directly” tab at the top of this page.

Monrovia – Panera Bread, Smashburger, Chipotle Now Open

The recently constructed retail center at 600 W Huntington Drive is fully occupied.

The recently constructed retail center at 600 W Huntington Drive is fully occupied.

The newly built three tenant strip center that was once the home of Acapulco restaurant is completed and all three tenants are open for business.

The strip center is approximately 10,000 square feet and is located within the 328,335 square foot Huntington Oaks Center which is owned and operated by The Festival Companies of Los Angeles. The center is anchored by Kohl’s, Trader Joes, Marshalls, Toys ‘R Us and Bed Bath & Beyond. and is located at the southwest corner of Mayflower and Huntington Drive.

Panera Bread was the first tenant to open on December 2, 2013, while Smashburger opened a few days later on the 6th. Chipotle opened on the 12th.

The center under construction in August 2013.

The center under construction in August 2013.

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Construction progress in July 2013.

 

Acapulco restaurants filed for bankruptcy in October 2011 and subsequently closed many of its stores.

Acapulco restaurants filed for bankruptcy in October 2011 and subsequently closed many of its stores.